After an intensive round of shuttle diplomacy last week, US Secretary of State John Kerry announced that gaps have been significantly narrowed, but no agreement yet on terms for resuming Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Kerry has been working intensively to bridge gaps between Palestinian and Israeli positions, in particular to overcome Palestinian preconditions on returning to talks. High levels of distrust between the sides have made progress difficult until now.
At the end of his visit to Israel, Kerry declared: ‘’We have made real progress on this trip, and I believe that with a little more work, the start of final status negotiations could be within reach. We started out with very wide gaps and we have narrowed those considerably. We have some specific details and work to pursue, but I am absolutely confident that we are on the right track and that all of the parties are working in very good faith in order to get to the right place.’’

What is the outcome of Kerry’s latest visit?

• US Secretary of State John Kerry concluded an intensive three day round of shuttle diplomacy on Sunday, telling journalists that a resumption of final status talks may be within reach, but with no announcement yet of plans for a meeting between the sides. He has left officials in the region to continue working.
• Reports of plans for a four way summit in Amman, to be attended by Israeli, Palestinian, Jordanian and US leaders, have not yet been realised.
• Kerry met three times in lengthy and detailed sessions with both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and their respective teams. Talks with Netanyahu continued until 4am on Sunday morning.
• Addressing the Israeli cabinet on Sunday, Netanyahu reiterated his desire to resume talks without preconditions, stressing the need to address Israel’s security concerns, and adding that any future accord would be brought to the Israeli public for approval.

What have the parties been discussing?

• The US administration, backed by other third parties including Britain and the EU, has been pressing Israel and the Palestinians to enter negotiations immediately on a final status agreement. Kerry appears to favour an agreement on borders and security arrangements first, though actual terms of reference for what would be discussed have not been agreed.
• Until now the Palestinian side has placed preconditions on re-entering negotiations. These are: a complete cessation of Israeli settlement building in the West Bank and East Jerusalem; Israeli acceptance of pre-1967 lines as the basis for future borders; and the release of 127 Palestinian prisoners serving long sentences for terror offences prior to the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993.
• Israel has called for immediate talks without preconditions and has been reluctant to accept the Palestinian demands. However, Israel has moved somewhat to address the Palestinian requirements, and Kerry has been trying to bridge the gaps:
  • On settlement construction: Israel is reportedly willing to quietly suspend new construction beyond the major settlement blocks. Israel has already quietly frozen almost all new tenders and planning in settlements, including in East Jerusalem, since Kerry began his diplomatic initiative. However, the Palestinians seek a more comprehensive and public freeze.
  • On 1967 lines: Israel is reportedly ready to have the US present a formula for terms of reference on future borders, which includes reference to the pre-1967 lines as a basis but also recognises that major settlement blocks would remain part of Israel. In the past Netanyahu has linked this to Palestinian acceptance of Israel’s character as a Jewish state. Netanyahu also wants to see Israeli demands for the demilitarisation of the West Bank and the presence of Israeli security forces in the Jordan Valley met, alongside any agreement on borders. The Palestinians want Israeli to explicitly commit to the 1967 lines as a basis for talks and are not ready to acknowledge Israel’s Jewish character, or accept the presence of Israeli forces in a future Palestinian state.
  • On prisoner releases: The Israeli side is reluctant to release convicted terrorists as a ‘prize’ for the Palestinians simply agreeing to enter talks. Some of the prisoners are Arab citizens of Israel or residents of East Jerusalem, further complicating the issue of their release. Israel has reportedly indicated it would consider gradually releasing prisoners as a confidence building measure once talks are underway.

Why is it proving so difficult to get negotiations moving?

• Netanyahu has repeatedly expressed his desire to begin negotiations without preconditions and has publicly expressed his belief in the desirability of a peace agreement for Israel to head of the possibility of bi-national state.
• However, he is reluctant to make highly sensitive and significant concessions to Palestinian demands, just in order to get talks moving, and without receiving trade-offs in return. Netanyahu does not want to weaken Israel’s negotiating position before talks begin, and also faces political pressure from right-wing elements within his coalition.
• Many Israelis also suspect that Abbas is not serious about the talks, and will re-enter negotiations only temporarily, in order to avoid getting blamed internationally for the failure of Kerry’s efforts. They believe he is likely to abandon talks at the first opportunity and resume efforts to isolate Israel and get unilateral recognition of Palestinian statehood in the UN and other international forums.

Palestinian considerations

• Mahmoud Abbas engaged in extensive final status talks with former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert without preconditions, but has proven very reluctant to engage with Netanyahu. Palestinian confidence in Netanyahu’s readiness to reach an agreement is very low, especially given the opposition of many in Netanyahu’s own party and his coalition to a two-state solution.
• Instead of risking sustained negotiations with Netanyahu, Abbas has preferred seeking recognition of Palestinian statehood unilaterally at the UN and in other forums, which has proven politically safer and more popular with the Palestinian public.
• One of Abbas’s primary concerns is his own domestic legitimacy, particularly given the on-going division within the Palestinian movement between his secular nationalist Fatah party, which dominates the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, and the Islamist Hamas faction which controls the Gaza Strip and is opposed to the peace process.
• At the same time Abbas is under considerable pressure from the US, Europe and Arab states to re-enter talk, and risks losing vital US financial insistence and Israeli economic cooperation if he returns to the UN unilaterally in September.

What is likely to happen next?

• US officials are remaining in the region to continue talks and Kerry said he plans to return soon, at the request of the parties. Should the gaps be closed, Kerry is likely to return within weeks to launch a summit meeting, most likely in Jordan.
• If it proves impossible to establish a sustained negotiation process, the Palestinians are expected to resume unilateral moves at the UN and in other international forums in September.